One of the best things about sports betting is that you can find many viable strategies on the internet. Whether they are proven to be effective or just useless, is up to you to find out. However, there has been no foolproof way to have a 100% win rate on your bets in theory. This is because even though you can implement countless sports betting strategies, a significant percentage of your wins are based on luck at the end of the day.
However, that’s not saying that you shouldn’t do anything in your power to increase your chances of winning. In fact, with this kind of freedom, you are free to experiment with different approaches and strategies you want to. That said, we will be giving some useful advanced strategies for your betting system, and it’s up to you if you want to implement them altogether or use them one at a time.
Either way, they are proven to be useful by a lot of bettors. So here are some useful advanced basketball betting strategies you can use for your bets.
Pick Value Over Winners
Being a successful bettor does not only mean that you have to pick winners. This is a mistake that a lot of bettors, even the seasoned ones, make. You have to look at the value of the wagers first before you place a bet. That means that even though the team you want to bet on is a sure winner, you have to pick the right time when it’s the most profitable to bet on them.
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It’s important to remember that a sportsbook will give an exact amount minus the juice on what they think a bet is worth. This is extremely important to remember for moving lines. As we all know, moving lines are based on public opinion, in which you have to find the perfect value for each bet, and most of the time, the most profitable value is the one against the public opinion.
Keep Watch of the Line Movement:
Speaking of moving lines, understanding how it works and how it’s affected by bettors is a good way to find value bets with high profitability. For example, let’s say that the Lakers are playing against the Bucks in the finals. You figure that the Bucks should have a payout of +200. Then you shop Odds provided by FanDuel and see that it’s listed as +200. Even if you’re right, you shouldn’t bet on this value yet.
Instead, wait for the following days that lead up to the finals game. There’s a good chance that SportsCenter and news outlets will overhype one of these teams. You wait for it, and sports news cover that the Lakers will crush the Bucks. The public perception will then react based on the hype and puts in tons of bets on the Lakers. To avoid losing a profit, bookies will then make the Bucks +220.
It would be a good time to bet on the Bucks by now. Although if you think that the value will still gradually increase, you can still wait for it. However, this situation doesn’t happen all the time. Line movement is unpredictable, and spotting a great value as you see it is an art form.
As you can deduce by now, betting on the right opportunity will take a little bit of practice and experience. You may end up losing a lot of value bets, but it’s normal. The takeaway here is that you should always be attentive during line movement, or you’re going to miss out on a lot of value bets in the process.
Keep Updated with the Narrative:
Basketball sometimes has storylines that make the games more interesting, like an old rivalry or coach drama. Factoring these in your bets can yield you great results in the long run. Why is this important? Certain drama will give more motivation to the teams in question. One good example of this is a player facing his old team.
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NBA players change teams frequently. It’s a norm, and thus it’s fairly common to see a superstar change teams after a season. When the player coincidentally plays against his old team, he will be more motivated to either prove he made the right choice or show that he is better than he once was.
This might sound sappy, but it’s a common trope not just in basketball but in most team sports. That said, his new teammates will often rally around the new players, making the team’s performance more intense.
Takeaway:
At the end of the day, what sports betting boils down to is looking for the bet at the right time and with the best value. Even though you have won many bets before, if their value is not good, you are still not winning enough for your number of bets. A true win in betting is winning a bet that has the best value possible.
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