At first glance, the 2020/21 Champions League’s knockout phase has a familiar look to it. After all, 12 of the 16 teams were present at this stage of the competition the season before. And, ten of those 12 were in the Last 16 the season before that. We are, of course, talking about Europe’s elite teams and perennial Champions League favourites – Bayern, Man City, Liverpool, Barcelona, Real Madrid, etc. But there is usually an air of invincibility around one or more of those teams; a sense that they are juggernauts hurtling towards each other.
But while there is a ring of familiarity around the participants, there is also a vulnerability that has been apparent since the start of the European club season back in September: Liverpool conceding seven in a hammering by Aston Villa; Man City shipping five in a home defeat to Leicester; Lens defeating PSG; Juventus being thrashed at the Stadio Delle Alpi by Fiorentina; the normally imperious Bayern Munich losing 4-1 to Hoffenheim; and the travails of both Barcelona and Real Madrid have been well documented.
Fatigue has hit last season’s Champions League teams
Pundits have cited a few factors as to why we have seen so many big teams fall to lesser lights. It does happen every season, of course, but not with the regularity that we witnessed over the autumn and winter of 2020. One theory is that there is huge fatigue among players, with the postponed Champions League and Europa League wrapping up in August, leaving teams with just a few weeks to rest and prepare instead of the usual few months. The lack of fans in stadiums has also been cited as playing into the psychology of the matches.
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So, where does leave us when looking at the Last 16 for the 2020/21 Champions League? It’s understandable that bookmakers have made the trio of Bayern Munich (11/4), Man City (9/2) and Liverpool (13/2) the favourites. Despite the series of anomalistic results, the trio remains the cream of European football. They have also been handed favourable, although still tricky, ties in the knockout stages.
But when it comes to making an astute football prediction, should we dismiss the odds in this strangest of seasons? It would not be altogether unsurprising to see the likes of Bayern or Liverpool put to the sword given what we have seen so far this season. Their opponents Lazio and Leipzig are more than capable of pulling off an upset, as are Borussia Monchengladbach capable of beating Man City. The point is that if you go through all the Last 16 ties this season, you certainly would not be as confident of picking the winner as years gone by.
Squad strength could count for much later in the season
There is, however, always the chance that things return to ‘normal’ once the Champions League returns in mid-February. Several of the continental teams will have had a much-needed winter break, and squad depth – something that favours the big teams – tends to play a role later in the season. But given the trends we have seen so far, you can understand the reluctance of some pundits to stick their necks out with their predictions.
Of course, we always see shock results in the Champions League. Lyon and Leipzig both pulled out huge results last season to make it to the Semi-Finals. But the fact that Europe’s heavyweights have all been pummelled at least once this season will give confidence to the underdogs when the competition gets underway next month. Not since 2004 and Porto’s triumph have we had a truly surprise winner of Europe’s elite tournament – might 2021 yield the next one?
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